Spain Election 2026: What Changes for Costa del Sol Buyers

Spain goes to the polls on Sunday 29 November 2026. The vote was called after two emergency housing decrees fell in Congress on Friday 2 October, and the Government re approved both with changes on 6 October. They were published in the BOE on Wednesday 7 October. This is not a post about who should win. If you are buying, selling or renting out property between Marbella and Sotogrande, it sets out which rules apply to you today, which are still in dispute, and what could change once a new parliament sits. We will keep it updated on this same URL.

Last updated 7 October 2026. Both decrees were published in the BOE this morning as Real Decreto-ley 28/2026 and Real Decreto-ley 29/2026, and the table below has been checked line by line against the official text. Next update: after the convalidation votes in the Diputación Permanente.

Why there is an election

On Monday 5 October the Government announced early general elections for 29 November. The dissolution decree, Real Decreto 806/2026 of 5 October, was published in the BOE on Tuesday 6 October, and the vote follows 54 days later, as the electoral law requires.

The trigger was housing. On Friday 2 October Congress rejected two decree laws approved on 29 September, known as the Maricarmen decrees after an 87 year old tenant evicted in Madrid. The first was a broad package on rentals, tourist lets, evictions and investor rules. The second would have made rental contracts indefinite in practice. Neither found a majority.

On Tuesday 6 October the cabinet approved both decrees again, with changes, so that the Diputación Permanente, the committee that holds the powers of Congress while the chamber is dissolved, can vote on them. The first decree keeps the rental extensions, the rent cap, the seasonal and tourist let rules and the investor measures, and adds 280 million euros in guarantees for industrialised housing and 400 million for social housing providers. The second, on indefinite rental contracts, was given a delayed start: the published text enters into force on 15 November 2026, which leaves the Diputación Permanente its 30 days to vote on it first. A challenge at the Constitutional Court has also been announced. So the practical status of these rules for the next few months is: in force, and contested.

Two points of procedure matter for the calendar. The Government does not become a caretaker government on the day the election is called. Under the Government Act it ceases after the election and then stays in office, limited to ordinary business, until the new one takes over. And a result is not a government. After the vote the King proposes a candidate and Congress votes on the investiture, with an absolute majority needed at the first attempt and a simple majority 48 hours later. If nobody wins that confidence within two months of the first vote, parliament is dissolved again. That is why the timeline below runs into the new year.

This is a national election. Nothing changes at the Junta de Andalucía, which sets transfer tax and tourist rental licensing, or at the town halls of Marbella, Estepona, Benahavís, Casares or Manilva, which control planning. A new government in Madrid changes national law only.

What is actually in force

The table has been checked against the two texts published in the BOE on 7 October. Real Decreto-ley 29/2026 (BOE-A-2026-20823, 99 pages) carries the main package and is in force from Thursday 8 October 2026, with the IVA changes starting on 1 December 2026. Real Decreto-ley 28/2026 (BOE-A-2026-20822) carries the indefinite contract rules and enters into force on 15 November 2026. Both need a convalidation vote in the Diputación Permanente within 30 days of publication, so by 6 November. Those votes are the ones to watch.

One regional point matters here. Andalucía has never declared a tensioned zone, so the price control rules in the 2023 housing law do not apply anywhere on the coast. The measures above are national and apply everywhere, including Marbella and Estepona. We explained how the July 2026 measures landed on the coast in our post on the July housing decree, and the same logic holds now.

What the election does not change

An election headline is not a change in the law. Before looking at what could change, here is what stays exactly as it was.

Your right to buy. Any foreign national can buy property in Spain today, during the campaign and after the vote. You need an NIE, a Spanish bank account and a lawyer. Our NIE guide covers the first step.

Purchase taxes. Transfer tax on a resale in Andalucía is 7% today and drops to 6.75% on 1 January 2027, a cut decided by the Junta on 24 September and unaffected by anything in Madrid. New builds pay 10% IVA plus 1.2% stamp duty. The full breakdown is in what it really costs to buy in Andalucía and the 2027 transfer tax cut.

Signed contracts and deadlines. A reservation, an arras contract or an off plan payment schedule runs on its own dates. Political uncertainty does not excuse a missed payment and does not give you a way out of a deposit.

Residency. Owning a home does not give you residence, and the election does not reopen the Golden Visa, which closed to new applications on 3 April 2025. Your visa route and your tax residence are separate questions from the purchase.

Your tax position. Tax residence is decided by the 183 day rule, where your economic interests sit and a family presumption, not by owning a home or holding an NIE, and the Tax Agency separates it from administrative residence. A non resident who keeps a property for personal use or empty still pays non resident income tax on an imputed income from it every year. Both rules predate the decrees and survive them.

The 100% tax on buyers from outside the EU. This was a bill registered in Congress in May 2025. It never passed, and under Spanish parliamentary rules pending bills lapse when the Cortes are dissolved. It would have to be reintroduced from scratch after the election. It is not law today.

Mortgages. Rates are set by the ECB and by your lender’s offer, not by the election. If you hold a variable rate loan, check when your next reset is. If you are buying in pounds, dollars or zloty, your exchange rate exposure is the bigger variable this autumn.

Who votes. General elections are for Spanish citizens. Owning property, holding an NIE or paying tax here does not give a foreign national a vote on 29 November. EU citizens vote in municipal elections only.

What it means for you

If you are buying a second home

Almost nothing changes. None of these measures touch a property you use yourself, and the resale market between Estepona and Sotogrande runs largely on foreign cash buyers who are not affected by rental rules. Transfer tax, notary, registry and lawyer costs are as they were. The buying process is unchanged and completes in the same four to eight weeks.

If you are relocating

If you buy, see above. If you plan to rent for a year first, the rules now work in your favour: a two year extension on request and a cap on increases. Expect fewer long term listings though, as some owners pull out of the long term market. Winter lets of three to six months are the category most likely to shrink.

If you are buying to let, long term or holiday

This is where you need to pay attention. A holiday let is capped at 31 days per stay and, from 1 December 2026, carries 10% IVA on stays of up to 30 nights. The new IBI surcharge only applies in tensioned zone municipalities, so not on this coast today. Winter lets of three to six months only hold up as seasonal contracts if the tenant can prove a temporary need, otherwise they become habitual residence contracts with a five year minimum (seven if the landlord is a company) and the new extension rights. Run the numbers on the new basis before you sign, and have your contracts drafted by someone who has read the final BOE text. The licence rules set by the Junta de Andalucía, and the right of your community of owners to vote on tourist use, are unchanged by any of this. Can your community vote away your holiday rental explains that side.

If you already own

Keep filing and keep paying. A dissolved parliament does not pause IBI, non resident income tax, community fees or a mortgage. If you let the property, the measures table is your checklist, and the only action this month is to have your contracts read against the final BOE text. If you plan to sell, nothing in the decrees touches a single home sold at market price.

If you buy portfolios, NPLs or distressed assets

The restriction on buying below 70% of market value, and the extension of tenants’ right of first refusal to whole buildings and portfolios, directly affect how deals are structured. Until the Constitutional Court rules, any transaction signed under these rules carries legal uncertainty in both directions. Structure with that in mind. Single asset purchases at market price, including homes with inherited problems like the ones we handle through Property Solutions, are not what the decree is aimed at.

Timeline

1. Tuesday 6 October: dissolution published in the BOE (Real Decreto 806/2026). Cabinet re approves both housing decrees with changes. Done.
2. Wednesday 7 October: both decrees published in the BOE as Real Decreto-ley 28/2026 and 29/2026. Done.
3. Thursday 8 October: the main package (Real Decreto-ley 29/2026) takes effect, except the IVA changes, which start on 1 December.
4. By Friday 6 November: convalidation votes in the Diputación Permanente, within 30 days of publication.
5. Sunday 15 November: the indefinite contract decree (Real Decreto-ley 28/2026) enters into force, if convalidated.
6. October to November: campaign. A Constitutional Court challenge may be filed in this window.
7. Sunday 29 November: general election.
8. December to January: new Cortes constituted, investiture vote, government formed. Nothing can be repealed before this.
9. Spring 2027 at the earliest: any repeal or replacement law takes effect.

Whatever happens on 29 November, these rules apply to anything you sign between now and the new year. Follow the sequence, not the headline: dissolution decree, published decree text, convalidation vote, result, government formation, enacted law, commencement date. Each step answers a different question, and we will update this page at each one.

What could change after 29 November

The decrees stay. The new parliament converts them into permanent law through the normal route. Seasonal and tourist let rules become the settled framework, and the second decree on indefinite rental contracts, if ratified, and the bill on buyers from outside the EU could return to the agenda.

The decrees are repealed or replaced. A new government could unwind them and go a different way on the 2023 housing law, planning approvals, squatting and support for young buyers. Given the time needed to form a government and pass a law, that would realistically land in the first half of 2027. A convalidated decree stays in force until it happens.

The Constitutional Court annuls the decree. This can come before or after the election, and a ruling usually takes months. Contracts signed under an annulled rule end up in a grey zone that the courts take time to settle. This is the scenario that matters most for anyone signing a seasonal contract or a portfolio deal this autumn, and it is the reason to have the contract drafted with both outcomes in mind.

What a clear result could bring

These are conditional scenarios, not predictions, and they depend on what is actually implemented after the vote.

Policy clarity. A government with a workable majority and a defined housing programme lets buyers, lenders and developers plan. Decisions that have been parked since September could move. A fragmented result or long negotiations would do the opposite.

Supply. The Banco de España’s annual report for 2025 puts the housing problem on the supply side: land, planning, labour and construction capacity. If political attention turns into planning and infrastructure measures, the pipeline on the coast improves over years, not months. No election completes a home.

Predictable rental rules. Whichever way the rules settle, owners can price risk once they stop changing week to week. Clarity is the benefit, not an assumed right to higher rents or fewer tenant protections.

A settled framework for international buyers. The debate over rules for buyers from outside the EU ends in either reassurance or restriction. Either outcome removes the uncertainty that has hung over that category since May 2025.

The risks run the other way: a long government formation, new compliance costs on rental models, or measures promised and never implemented. Do not let anyone turn that into artificial urgency. “Buy before the election” and “taxes will definitely rise” are claims that need evidence nobody has today.

Our view

The luxury resale market on this stretch of coast is largely insulated. Buyers here mostly pay cash, buy to live or to spend part of the year, and are not the audience these decrees are written for. The parts that bite, tourist lets and seasonal contracts, are a business model question, not a reason to stop buying. Check the model and sign the right contract. Our mid year market data for Marbella and Estepona shows why: supply, not legislation, is what drives prices here.

Andalucía’s decision not to declare tensioned zones is the second cushion. It removes the price control layer entirely, and the regional transfer tax cut from 2027 pulls the other way for buyers.

What the coast has lacked for three years is predictability. Housing rules have been approved, rejected and re approved within the same week, and that back and forth, not any single measure, is what makes buyers hesitate. Whatever the result on 29 November, a new parliament settles the question one way or the other, and there is now a date for that.

“The buyers we work with are not waiting for the election to decide whether they want to live here. They want to know which rules apply when they sign, and right now that is a question for a good lawyer, not a reason to hold off.” Michael Sturhoofd, administrador, Santina Homes.

For the legal side we work with Pérez de Vargas, the firm that has handled nearly all of our completions. If you are signing a rental or a purchase this autumn, have them read the final BOE text against your contract before you do.

If you want to talk through how this affects a purchase you are planning, call us at the Estepona office or book a call.

Sources

• La Moncloa, 5 October 2026: announcement of the general election for 29 November.
• BOE, 6 October 2026: Real Decreto 806/2026, de 5 de octubre, de disolución del Congreso de los Diputados y del Senado y de convocatoria de elecciones (BOE-A-2026-20742).
• La Moncloa and Idealista News, 6 October 2026: Council of Ministers re approves both housing decree laws with changes; Tu Casa first home financing announced.
• BOE, 7 October 2026: Real Decreto-ley 28/2026, de 6 de octubre, por el que se adoptan medidas urgentes para reforzar la estabilidad de los contratos de arrendamiento de vivienda habitual (BOE-A-2026-20822).
• BOE, 7 October 2026: Real Decreto-ley 29/2026, de 6 de octubre, por el que se adoptan medidas urgentes para la protección de la función social de la vivienda y la ampliación de la oferta de vivienda asequible (BOE-A-2026-20823).
• Congreso de los Diputados, 2 October 2026: result of the convalidation votes on the two 29 September housing decree laws.
• Idealista News, 29 September 2026: breakdown of the measures in both decrees.
• elDiario.es, 29 September 2026: full text of both decrees as published.
• Junta de Andalucía, 24 September 2026: transfer tax cut to 6.75% from 2027.
• Plataforma ONE, Gobierno de España: end of the investor visa programme, 3 April 2025.
• Banco de España, 18 June 2026: Annual Report 2025 presentation, housing supply and affordability.
• Agencia Tributaria: tax residence of individuals (183 day rule, centre of economic interests) and imputed income on non resident property.
• BOE: Spanish Constitution, articles 68, 99 and 115; Government Act, article 21.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I still buy property in Spain as a foreigner during the election period?

Yes. Nothing in the decrees or the election changes who can buy, how a purchase completes or what tax is paid in Andalucía. Notaries, land registries and banks work as normal through the campaign, and a purchase started in October completes on the usual timetable.

Do the new rental rules apply in Marbella and Estepona if Andalucía has no tensioned zones?

Yes for most of them. The rent freeze, the seasonal contract rules, the tourist let changes and the investor measures are national and apply on the coast. Only the price control rules in the 2023 housing law depend on a regional declaration, which Andalucía has not made and says it will not make.

Can I still rent my apartment on Airbnb on the Costa del Sol?

Yes, with a valid Junta de Andalucía licence, your community’s consent and a registration number. Stays are capped at 31 days and, from 1 December 2026, stays of up to 30 nights carry 10% IVA. The new IBI surcharge needs a tensioned zone declaration, which Andalucía has not made. Any yield you were quoted a month ago still needs recalculating on the new basis.

Will the housing decrees be repealed after the election?

That depends on the new parliament. Repealing the 2023 housing law and these measures is on the table for one side of the debate, keeping and extending them for the other. Nothing changes before a new government is formed, so any repeal realistically lands in the first half of 2027 at the earliest. Until then, or until the Constitutional Court rules, the decrees stay in force.

Is the 100% tax on non EU buyers coming in?

Not now. The bill was registered in May 2025, never reached a vote and lapses with the dissolution of the Cortes. A new government would have to reintroduce it. Buyers from the UK, the US or Switzerland pay the same transfer tax as everyone else today, 7% in Andalucía.

Does the election change my mortgage or my completion date?

No. Mortgage rates follow the ECB and your lender’s offer. Your reservation, arras or off plan schedule runs on its contractual dates. If anything, watch exchange rates rather than polls if your funds are not in euros.